Defense Chief's Dire Warning to Netanyahu Exposes a Deep Rift Within …

For the first time, on Wednesday night, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant publicly spoke out against the policy being led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

He warned that Netanyahu's refusal to discuss the creation of an alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza could reverse the Israel Defense Forces' military achievements in the war and lead to Israel being sucked into a long and drawn out stay in the Strip. The defense minister sketched out a scenario in which Israel could be forced into military rule in Gaza and a long, dangerous and expensive war. Gallant's statements are illustrative of the growing rift among the political and defense leadership over the past few months.

Gallant called on Netanyahu not to take civil control of the Strip. He proposed an alternative Palestinian leadership in Gaza (a hint at Palestinian Authority involvement in running the enclave, even though he didn't expressly mention it by name). Netanyahu unequivocally rejected this idea, since he is held captive by his extremist right-wing coalition partners.

However, this is to some extent an argument over the skin of a bear that has yet to be killed. The PA is hardly sitting around waiting for an Israeli request for it to take on a lead role in running Gaza. In any event, one can also assume that Hamas is still strong enough to place sufficient obstacles to prevent such a scenario from playing out. Nevertheless, the warning signal given by Gallant is of great importance.

Gallant's statement contradicted remarks made by the prime minister in a recorded message only hours earlier. Netanyahu promised that Israel would fight Hamas to the end and said that there was no point in discussing "the day after" until the terror organization had been defeated and removed from power in Gaza.

Immediately after Gallant made his statement, Netanyahu released a new video message saying he wouldn't agree to replace "Hamastan with Fatahstan." Lawmakers from Likud and the extremist right-wing bloc of the coalition joined in the attacks. One can assume that Hamas is watching the open split among the Israeli leadership with some interest, and a measure of satisfaction. The current situation will create even more difficulties in moving toward a hostage deal, as Hamas has likely been convinced that its strategic situation is improving.

The last time that Gallant openly turned against Netanyahu was in March of last year. The reason that time was the defense minister's concern that the judicial overhaul would have a negative impact on the IDF and Israel's security. Netanyahu responded by firing Gallant, but the decision was never executed as hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets to protest. This time we are in the middle of a war and it's doubtful that Gallant's statement will serve as a spark to reignite the protests against Netanyahu and take them to a new level.

Until now, despite many forecasts to the contrary, this scenario hasn't happened. Gallant's statement on Wednesday was clear and blunt and put a spotlight on the silence of National Union ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot. They should have come out a long time ago to publicly say what Gallant said.

Senior IDF and Shin Bet security service officials have recently issued similar warnings to Netanyahu. IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari, while speaking to the media at the Kerem Shalom crossing earlier this week, said that "an alternative to Hamas will create pressure on it." He hastened to state that "this is a question for the political echelon," but his message resonated loud and clear.

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These statements express mounting concern among the three ministers and the heads of the security forces over the direction that the war with Hamas is taking. The issue is not only "the day after" and the recommendation that the government set a diplomatic objective in the addition to its military objectives. There are also question about the stalling of the hostage negotiations, continuation of the fighting in Rafah and the growing rifts with Egypt and the United States.

Crisis with Egypt

Even though it was clear that any operation in Rafah would require complex understandings with Cairo, a crisis has erupted. Egypt is furious that the Israeli flag was raised over the Rafah crossing, and it has stepped up its measures against Israel. It has joined South Africa's petition to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, calling for an injunction to stop the war. A security delegation visited Cairo on Wednesday to try to solve the crisis. The Egyptians are also putting up obstacles to the entry of humanitarian aid from the Sinai Peninsula to Gaza, thus leading to Israel violating its commitments to the United States.

The Rafah offensive has come amid a growing rift with the United States with the Biden administration freezing an arms shipment of thousands of precision weapons for the Israel Air Force and President Joe Biden himself publicly expressing his opposition to an Israeli military maneuver.

While the Israeli operation in Rafah is gradually expanding, the IDF has so far not entered the dense urban areas in the heart of the city. It's reasonable to assume that Israel will refrain from launching a major offensive before U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan arrives in the region sometime in the next few days.

Nevertheless, intense fighting is ongoing in several areas of the Gaza Strip operating three divisional headquarters with more brigade combat teams than operated in Gaza over the past two months. On Wednesday, the names of three Israelis who were killed over the past two days were released – a civilian killed by an anti-tank missile in the north, a Defense Ministry employee who died of his wounds from a mortar attack on the Gaza border and a soldier killed in a tank accident inside Gaza.

The danger, as in the past, is that events on the ground will dictate an escalation without any political decisions having been made. From the moment forces commence offensive operations within the Strip, hold ground and come under counter-fire, a situation may arise in which commanders in the field decide to advance forces on the ground that they need to push back Hamas fighters to lessen the danger to their troops. These are things that can happen in combat, and Israel may find itself far deeper in Palestinian territory in the southern Strip than authorized by the cabinets.

Netanyahu's draft bill stunt

It seems that under these difficult circumstances, Netanyahu has been gripped by paralysis. Most of his effort is invested in his personal survival, in keeping his grip on power and maintaining his coalition with the extreme right and the ultra-Orthodox. The result is a shockingly passive policy. The current Netanyahu doctrine is to manage a country at war without taking any significant decisions. The prime minister continues to market nonsense and fabrications to the public. His promises of total victory and claims that we are just a step away from it have now been joined by the inflated importance of entering Rafah.

The prime minister plans to hold on to power by all means necessary. This is evident from his statements, from the reactions of his supporters, who are gradually rallying around him once again, and the campaign being waged for him almost 24 hours a day by Channel 14 and several of his other mouthpieces. And while Netanyahu is sticking to a policy of zero diplomatic action, he is far more proactive when it comes to his political survival.

The latest example came on Wednesday, when Netanyahu announced at the last moment that in place of the draft-dodging bill he was about to table with his ultra-Orthodox partners, he intended to promote the draft bill tabled by Benny Gantz when the National Union leader was the defense minister in the Bennett-Lapid government in 2022. Some commentators reacted to Netanyahu's stunt by praising him for being a few steps ahead of his rivals. Gantz was twisting and turning on whether to quit the emergency government due to the dispute over the ultra-Orthodox draft. Now, Gantz appears to have been snookered.

The admiration for Netanyahu's move is totally unjustified. What Netanyahu has done in coordination with the Haredi parties is just another dirty trick at the expense of Israeli citizens. First, Gantz's original outline doesn't really promote equality in carrying the military burden; it's more like a Band-aid on a huge, bleeding wound. Second, things were supposed to change for the better after the war broke out. With reservists serving months, with the discharge for combat reservists pushed back to the age of 45, with mandatory service for men extended to three years, the old solutions just won't do, as Gantz himself said on Wednesday. Netanyahu's stunt may be enough for Gantz and his party to consider quitting the government on the grounds that they had originally considered – the prime minister's pitiful diplomatic management of the war and the failure of the hostage negotiations.