The Morning: The myth of migrant crime - frederick.lapides@gmail.com

July 18, 2024

Good morning. We’re covering Republicans’ false claim about immigration and crime — as well as growing momentum against Biden, a mayor’s swim in the Seine and Emmy nominations.

Men, seen in the reflection of a window, walk and sit along a sidewalk.

Migrants waiting to be taken to a shelter in Chicago. Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times

Immigrants and crime

Throughout the first three days of the Republican National Convention, officials have highlighted a surge in what they call “migrant crime.” President Biden “has welcomed into our country rapists, murderers, even terrorists, and the price that we have paid has been deadly,” Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas claimed last night. The day before, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas said, “Every day, Americans are dying” in crimes committed by migrants. Donald Trump has made similar remarks on the campaign trail.

But there is no migrant crime surge.

In fact, U.S. rates of crime and immigration have moved in opposite directions in recent years. After illegal immigration plummeted in 2020, the murder rate rose. And after illegal immigration spiked in 2021 and 2022, murders plateaued and then fell.

Over a longer period, there is no relationship between immigration and crime trends. The number of foreign-born Americans has increased for decades, while the murder rate has gone up and down at different times, as these charts by my colleague Ashley Wu show:

Two charts show the share of foreign-born population and the annual murder rate in the U.S. from 1970 to 2022, showing no clear relationship between the two metrics.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey; Jeff Asher, F.B.I. | By The New York Times

Yes, some migrants have committed violent crimes. There are more than 45 million immigrants in the U.S., and invariably some of them — just like people of any other group — will do bad things. Similarly, thousands of native-born Americans commit violent crimes in any given week.

Trump and other Republicans have suggested that immigrants are especially likely to be criminals. They point to a few anecdotes. But the data shows the opposite: Immigrants are less likely to commit crimes. There are genuine issues with the border and illegal immigration, but more crime is not one of them.

More migrants, less crime

If more immigration led to more crime, you would expect that crime rates would spike along with immigration flows, locally and nationally. The statistics would show that migrants were disproportionately likely to commit criminal or violent acts. Instead, the opposite is true.

New York, Chicago and Denver have had an influx of immigrants in the past couple years. Over that same period, murder rates in those cities have fallen. Similarly, border counties in Texas have lower violent crime rates than the state and country overall, the crime analyst Jeff Asher has found.

The individual crimes committed by migrants that Trump and his allies highlight simply do not add up to a bigger trend.

In reality, immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than people born in the U.S. Immigrants have had lower incarceration rates — a measure for crime — than native-born Americans for at least 150 years, a recent study concluded. Undocumented immigrants have lower felony arrest rates than legal immigrants or native-born Americans, another study found.

Why? Consider migrants’ motives. Many risk their lives by crossing dangerous jungles, rivers and deserts through Latin America to reach the U.S. so they can find better jobs that offer higher pay. In many cases, they are fleeing crime and violence back home. If they came here illegally, they have an incentive to avoid trouble with the law so they do not get caught by the authorities and deported.

The bottom line

People have legitimate reasons to be frustrated with illegal immigration and to worry about what happens at the border. Liberal mayors have learned as much in the past few years; the surge of illegal immigrants to their cities has drained public resources, particularly housing. A porous border also contributes to security concerns, such as the flow of fentanyl and the risk of terrorism. When an undocumented immigrant does commit a crime, it can lead to a sense of lawlessness and chaos.

But more immigration has not caused more crime. The myth that crime is up can perpetuate stereotypes and racism. Immigrants who arrived in New York recently told The Times that local residents were often hostile. They make rude comments under their breath or move away in subway cars. One Venezuelan lamented that people now saw all migrants in the same way: “violent.”

Related: The brother of a woman killed on a scenic trail — a crime in which an undocumented immigrant has been arrested — spoke at the Republican convention.

More from the Republican convention

Senator J.D. Vance Todd Heisler/The New York Times

Accepting the vice-presidential nomination, Senator J.D. Vance recounted growing up poor in a working-class Ohio town that he said had been “cast aside” by Biden and other politicians. “I will be a vice president who never forgets where he came from,” he said.
Vance also sounded economically populist notes, criticizing big corporations and praising “the working man, union and nonunion alike.” Here are more takeaways from Night 3.
The speech didn’t mention abortion. Vance has supported a national ban and opposed exceptions for rape and incest.
Usha Vance, his wife, spoke about meeting him in law school, poked fun at his beard and described him as a “meat and potatoes kind of guy” who nevertheless learned to cook Indian food for her mother.
Donald Trump Jr., who spoke before Vance, aggressively criticized Biden. He has become a major figure in the party, building what he calls a “MAGA bench for the future.”
Antisemitism was another theme of the night. A Harvard graduate endorsed Trump’s call to deport foreign students who harass Jewish students. The parents of a Hamas-held American-Israeli hostage chanted “bring them home.”
How well do you know Milwaukee, the city hosting the convention? Take our quiz.
The late night hosts joked about Vance and Nikki Haley backing away from their opposition to Trump.

THE LATEST NEWS

President Biden

President Biden Eric Lee/The New York Times

Biden tested positive for Covid while campaigning in Nevada and has mild symptoms. “Doing well,” he said after flying back to Delaware.
Biden has become more open to hearing arguments about why he should leave the race, after Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic congressional leaders, privately expressed lawmakers’ concerns.
In an interview, Biden said he’d consider stepping aside if his doctors told him he had a medical condition.
The Democratic National Committee delayed an expedited plan to nominate Biden. Representative Adam Schiff said Biden should drop out.
Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say Biden should step aside, according to a new poll.
Jeffrey Katzenberg, a co-chairman of Biden’s campaign, told the president that donors had stopped giving. Some are calling lawmakers to persuade Biden to drop out.
The Trump campaign declined to agree to a date for a vice-presidential debate, saying that doing so before the Democratic convention would be unfair to “whoever Kamala Harris picks as her running mate.”

The Trump Shooting

The gunman who tried to assassinate Trump searched for the dates of Trump events and the Democratic National Convention, the F.B.I. told Congress.
The F.B.I. has found no evidence that the shooter held strong partisan views. A former classmate said he disdained politicians in both parties.
Local police at Trump’s rally saw the gunman acting suspiciously and circulated a photo of him, though they did not know he had a weapon. The Secret Service let Trump go onstage despite the threat.
A Times investigation, constructed from videos and photos taken at the rally, shows how law enforcement failed to stop the shooting.

International

A woman standing on a floating platform in a river raises her arms.

Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris. James Hill for The New York Times

The mayor of Paris swam in the Seine, to prove that the river was clean enough to host Olympic events.
Milan’s main airport is now named after Silvio Berlusconi, the scandal-prone former prime minister. Left-leaning lawmakers are protesting.
Officials in Spain hoped an algorithm could predict how much danger victims of domestic violence were in. Some women they sent home on its recommendation were killed.

MORNING READS

A display of croissants, cookies and other baked goods.

Michelle Groskopf for The New York Times

Matter of taste: In an era of viral hybrid pastries, the plain croissant is still the best croissant.

Swirls of color: Scientists scanned the brains of people on psychedelic drugs. The results were trippy.

City with a female face: A community in Vienna was designed specifically to benefit women.

Lives Lived: Renauld White walked the runways for Ralph Lauren, Calvin Klein and Donna Karan and was the first Black American model to appear on a GQ cover. He died at 80.

SPORTS

W.N.B.A.: Caitlin Clark set a league record with 19 assists against the Dallas Wings.

Soccer: Philadelphia Union’s Cavan Sullivan, 14, became the youngest player to appear in an M.L.S. game.

Golf: The Open Championship teed off this morning at Royal Troon, Scotland. All eyes are on Rory McIlroy, whose recent collapse at the U.S. Open was crushing for fans — especially those in his hometown.

ARTS AND IDEAS

An actor dressed in a period costume on the TV show “Shogun.”

Hiroyuki Sanada in a scene from “Shogun.” Katie Yu/FX, via Associated Press

Two FX series topped this year’s Emmy nominations. “Shogun,” a period drama set in Japan, received 25 nods, while the tense restaurant workplace comedy “The Bear” had 23. Some other highlights:

The 23 nominations for “The Bear” are the most ever for a comedy, beating a record that “30 Rock” set in 2009.
HBO trailed Netflix and FX in total nominations. It hasn’t been third since 1996, before “The Sopranos” or “Sex and the City” had premiered.

See the full list of nominees, and the shows that our critic felt got snubbed.

The Morning: news to know