October 20, 2024 |
Good morning. Today, my colleague Ronda Kaysen is writing about an interesting way that elections affect our decisions. We’re also covering life in a swing state, the Amazon River and American “pharmacy deserts.” —David Leonhardt
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| Dana Smith |
Election anxiety
 | By Ronda Kaysen I write about real estate and the housing market. |
In the weeks leading up to a general election, consumers tend to get skittish about major purchases like houses, cars, weddings and investments. After the election, regardless of the outcome, they open up their wallets and shop again.
It’s the election shopping slump.
As the presidential election draws near, my colleague Jordyn Holman and I wanted to see if the trend was holding true this year as well. In a new article that published this morning, we find that it is.
Wedding planners told us that newly engaged couples were too distracted to book events for next year. Financial advisers said their clients were keeping their assets in cash. Car dealers said shoppers were staying on the sidelines.
In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain what drives this behavior, and why it’s not unique to this election cycle.
The pivot point
There are a lot of reasons Americans are reluctant to buy homes right now. Inflation drove mortgage interest rates to a 20-year high, and a lack of housing stock kept prices from falling, exacerbating an affordability crisis. But even in years when the housing market was more amenable, buyers got nervous before they went to the polls.
Jonathan Miller, a real estate appraiser, looked back at two decades of home sales in Los Angeles, Manhattan and Miami and saw a pattern: Sales dipped in the second half of even years and bounced back in odd years. “Election Day is the pivot point,” he said. “It’s like the foot is taken off the brake after the election.”
The dip isn’t dramatic, but it is consistent. In even years, sales fell by 5.5 percent in Los Angeles, 2.5 percent in Manhattan and 2.6 percent in Miami. In odd years, sales rose by 4.6 percent in Los Angeles, 8.5 percent in Manhattan and 10.2 percent in Miami. The pattern was not restricted to Democratic strongholds, either — it held in Suffolk County, N. Y., which typically votes for Republican candidates.
In conversations with car dealers, I heard of a similar pre-election pullback. Jerry Reynolds, a former car dealer and host of the “CarPro” radio show, told me this anxiety sets in every four years, only to evaporate after the election. He expects dealers “will see a surge of sales right after the election.”
Even armchair shoppers get cold feet. Big news moments often distract viewers of the television shopping networks QVC and HSN, according to David Rawlinson II, the chief executive of Qurate Retail Group, which owns the channels. “We rely on people watching our content,” he said, and when the news takes a dramatic turn, “they’re probably not watching QVC.”
What’s driving this?
Consumers don’t like uncertainty, and elections are all about the unknown. This one appears to be particularly close, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump locked in a virtual tie in the polls.
Cash is a resource — and for most of us, it’s the most fungible one we have. If we’re feeling as if we’re on unsolid ground, it’s no surprise that we would be reluctant to part with it. Kelly Goldsmith, a behavioral scientist and marketing professor at Vanderbilt University, studies the psychology of uncertainty and scarcity. She put it this way: “If the world starts to fall apart, you benefit from having a bunch of money in your mattress, right?”
There’s also the matter of the economy. Surveys have found that many Americans name it as their No. 1 concern this election, even though inflation has slowed and the job market is strong.
Some consumers are hoping that a Harris victory delivers down-payment assistance for first-time home buyers, one of her central campaign promises. Others hope that a second Trump administration improves the economy with tax cuts and spending cuts.
Little luxuries persist
Certainly Americans still shop when an election is coming. U.S. retail sales continued to grow last month. Consumer Edge, a company that tracks consumer data, looked at credit card and debit card transactions in the months leading up to the 2016, 2018 and 2022 elections and did not see any signs of an election season dip. (The company omitted 2020 because of the volatility caused by the pandemic.) But there was an exception to the trend: Bookings for cruises and purchases from luxury merchants slowed in the months before the 2016 election.
Dr. Goldsmith said she wouldn’t be surprised if people spent more on small luxuries as they look for ways to feel in control of their world, even if it’s only an illusion. “When I see myself holding this $8 Starbucks cup, I feel like I’m a person able to do things in the universe,” she said.
For more: Jordyn and I also spoke with reluctant consumers about their election angst. You can read our full article here.
THE LATEST NEWS |
More on the Election
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| Political mail in Michigan. Nic Antaya for The New York Times |
- For swing-state voters, life has become a barrage of television ads, dinner-hour phone calls, door-knocks and candidate visits. “My remote has a really strong mute button,” one Nevada resident said.
- In Michigan — home to Flint and the birthplace of General Motors — trade policies and the water crisis loom large in the election. Hear from voters there.
- Trump made crude remarks at a Pennsylvania rally, including about the size of a famous golfer’s genitals.
- For critics, Trump’s meandering speeches raise questions about his age and his cognitive health. His supporters see the tendency as entertaining rather than alarming. See examples from the past week.
- Elon Musk said he would randomly give $1 million to some people who sign his super PAC’s conservative petition.
- Trump seems to have found an unlikely ally in New York: Eric Adams, the indicted Democratic mayor. “I was persecuted, and so are you, Eric,” he said recently. (Here’s an explainer on who could succeed Adams.)
Middle East
- Israeli jets pounded the southern outskirts of Beirut. The Israeli military said it struck a Hezbollah intelligence command center and an underground weapons workshop, killing three commanders. The claims could not be independently verified.
- Israel continued its offensive in northern Gaza, where an airstrike hit a residential building. A Palestinian emergency services group said dozens had been killed. The Israeli military disputed an initial death toll.
- Two highly classified U.S. intelligence documents describing satellite images of Israel’s preparations for a potential strike on Iran were leaked online.
- In southern Lebanon, some Christians and their priests refuse to evacuate. They hope their presence will deter attacks on their homes, The Washington Post reports.
- Saudi Arabia was once open to stronger ties with Israel. After a year of war in Gaza, the kingdom is warming up to Iran, its traditional enemy.
More International News
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| The banks of the Amazon River in Colombia. Luis Acosta/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images |
- The Amazon River system, which sustains around 30 million people across eight countries, is drying up.
- Cuba was plunged into two prolonged blackouts in less than 24 hours. Experts have warned for years that its aging power system was on the verge of collapse.
- People in Moldova are voting on whether to enshrine in their Constitution a commitment to abandon Russian influence and one day join the E.U.
- To publicize the need to discharge worn-out troops in Ukraine, a soldier deserted and announced it on social media.
Other Big Stories
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| In Los Angeles. |
- Facing a homelessness crisis, psychiatrists in Los Angeles are treating the acutely mentally ill outdoors. Sometimes they give injections of antipsychotics on the sidewalk.
- The number of young people accused of major crimes in New York City, including murders and assaults, has surged.
- Boeing’s largest union, which represents more than 33,000 workers, said it had reached a deal to end its strike and would put it to a vote.
- Large pharmacy middlemen are underpaying independent drugstores. That’s created “pharmacy deserts” across the U.S.
THE SUNDAY DEBATE |
Should pro-Palestinian voters vote for Harris?
Yes. Benjamin Netanyahu wants Trump to win, which is what will happen if progressive voters reject Harris. “The way to think about voting is not as a mode of personal expression or a moral endorsement, but as an action with material consequences,” MSNBC’s Zeeshan Aleem writes.
No. It is entirely within the rights of pro-Palestinian voters to demand changes in policy in exchange for their votes, even if it is inconvenient for Harris. “It behooves candidates to listen to the people who probably helped elect them into power and might be needed to do it again,” Hala Alyan writes for Times Opinion.
FROM OPINION |
Business leaders who support Trump say they hate uncertainty more than taxes and regulation. But Trump is the personification of uncertainty, the Times Editorial Board writes.
Here are columns by Ross Douthat on a religious comeback and Maureen Dowd on Trump and the Catholic Church.
MORNING READS |
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| ABC |
Want to understand the American economy? Watch ABC’s “Shark Tank.”
Down the aisle: Some couples are embracing the gritty, chaotic appeal of the subway for their wedding ceremonies.
Vows: They grew up four blocks from each other but didn’t meet until she applied for a job at his family’s Eritrean restaurant.
Lives Lived: Toni Vaz was among the first Black stuntwomen in Hollywood and went on to create the N.A.A.C.P. Image Awards to recognize the often unsung work of Black writers and performers. She died at 101.
BOOK OF THE WEEK |
“From Here to the Great Unknown,” by Lisa Marie Presley and Riley Keough: Collaborative memoirs are a complicated feat, but Presley and Keough pull it off in this soulful, hair-raising retrospective on growing up with Graceland roots. Presley, the only child of Priscilla and Elvis Presley, died before she finished writing her life story. She’d prepared for the project and cogitated about it but, her daughter Riley Keough writes in the preface, “She wasn’t really sure what her value to the public was other than being Elvis’s daughter. She was so wracked with self-criticism that working on the book became incredibly difficult for her.” Keough picked up where Presley left off, using tapes her mother had made and chiming in with her own reflections — about Presley’s marriages, her struggle with addiction, her complicated relationship with her own mother and her unflagging devotion to Elvis, who died when she was 9. The result, now No. 2 on the best-seller list, is a family story with celebrity cameos, not the other way around. Read our review here.
More on books
- “When you’re in the spotlight, people tend to speak for you,” Alex Van Halen writes of his rocker brother, Eddie, in a new memoir. “I wanted to remind people that Ed was not a commodity. He was a complex human being.”
- ByteDance, the Chinese tech giant that owns TikTok, announced a move into print books. Its publishing imprint, 8th Note Press, will focus on popular genres such as romance, romantasy and young adult fiction.
THE INTERVIEW |
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| Mia Khalifa Philip Montgomery for The New York Times |
This week’s subject for The Interview is Mia Khalifa, who, 10 years after appearing in an adult film that led to death threats, has managed to reinvent herself as an enormously popular influencer.
I’ve seen you talk about the idea that you’re in the middle of a rebranding. But I haven’t seen you talk about what you think your brand was. Can you fill that in for me?
My brand at the beginning wasn’t something that was much in my control. I entered the adult industry in October of 2014, and very quickly I was pressured to perform in a video where the context was that I was an Arab veiled woman. Not long after, I would say maybe a couple hours after it premiered, the avalanche started. Every news outlet picked it up. I was completely out of control of my image, my reputation. I feel like a lot of people have slutty phases when they’re 20, 21. Unfortunately, mine was in 4K.
You’ll post a playful food video on TikTok and then a strident set of tweets about Gaza. Do you have a sense of whether the person who is following you on TikTok is paying attention to the political tweets? Is it a mishmash in people’s heads? Is it a mishmash in your head?
Thank you so much for being able to see that that is representative of the chaos in my head. It’s absolutely chaos.
You’ve been open online about having surgery to augment your appearance and being on Ozempic. Do the choices to do those things feel as if they’re coming from a place of agency and bodily autonomy? Is there any internal conflict there?
Not at all, and the reason that I talk about it is because I like showing the dichotomy behind changing yourself. When I got my rhinoplasty, I needed to make a point of making sure that my nose stays ethnic. It’s about improving what you want to improve. Same with my breast augmentation. And then Ozempic, honestly, was such a big trend, and I wanted to try it. I started to speak openly about that because I was getting a lot of compliments about how good I looked and my “workout routine,” and I felt guilty perpetuating something that wasn’t real.
Read more of the interview here.
THE NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE |
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| Photo illustration by Bobby Doherty |
Click the cover image above to read this week’s magazine.
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … |
Read books therapists recommend about nonmonogamy.
Buy a bathroom scale that will last years.
Find a decent laptop for less than $500.
MEAL PLAN |
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| Armando Rafael for The New York Times |
New York Times Cooking has been rhapsodizing about fall lately, but, for some, it may not be sweater season quite yet. So in this week’s Five Weeknight Dishes newsletter, Emily Weinstein highlights a recipe for any weather: a Parmesan-crusted salmon Caesar salad. For you weekly meal plan, she also suggests making baked mustard-herb chicken legs and a sheet-pan tofu with corn and chiles.
NOW TIME TO PLAY |
Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was luncheon.
Can you put eight historical events — including the creation of the N.B.A., the karaoke machine, and some of the first chocolate bars — in chronological order? Take this week’s Flashback quiz.
And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.
Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.
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Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch |