The Morning: Wishful thinking on abortion politics

November 13, 2024

Good morning. Today, we’re covering the politics of abortion — as well as Elon Musk in the government, Russian families and A.I. art.

A hand raising a Biden campaign sign that reads “Restore Roe.”

At a Biden campaign stop in April. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The abortion fallacy

After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, many Democrats argued that the issue would be the key to winning future elections. It was an alluring idea because it suggested that a central progressive policy goal — protecting abortion rights — doubled as a savvy political strategy.

But it hasn’t worked out. Instead, Republicans swept this year’s elections even as Democrats made the subject central to their campaigns and even as abortion-rights ballot initiatives passed in seven states. Today, the Democrats’ belief in the political potency of abortion looks like wishful thinking.

How could this have happened, given that the Republican Party’s opposition to abortion really is unpopular? In today’s newsletter, I’ll try to unravel the mystery.

Evidence ignored

Heading into 2024, abortion’s political sway was genuinely unclear.

Most Americans support substantial access to abortion access: In every state that voted on a ballot initiative in 2022 and 2023, the anti-abortion side lost. The uncertainty was whether the issue could also swing the result of general elections by causing voters who had not traditionally supported Democratic candidates to do so.

There was some reason to think the answer might be yes: Democrats did surprisingly well in the 2022 midterms, just months after Roe’s demise. But there were also reasons to be skeptical.

It was hard to find a single election where abortion seemed decisive. Although it might have helped flip a few House elections, the Democrats who won hadn’t emphasized the issue more than those who had lost. And not a single incumbent Republican governor or senator lost in 2022, despite attempts by Democratic candidates to focus on the issue.

March 2023 New York Magazine

“It is the only thing we’re really talking about,” Nan Whaley, the Democratic nominee for governor in Ohio, said in her 2022 campaign. “We think it is the issue.” Three weeks later, Whaley lost to Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican who had signed abortion restrictions into law, by 25 percentage points.

The most reasonable conclusion seemed to be that abortion had played a modest role in the midterms. If anything, it would probably play an even smaller role in 2024. Polls showed that the people who cared most about the issue tended to be highly educated, politically engaged Democrats. That’s a very different group from swing voters in presidential elections.

Rather than grappling with this conflicting evidence, however, many Democrats engaged in motivated reasoning. Some were scornful of suggestions that abortion might have limited political impact.

“There’s a history of political commentators not understanding the intensity the abortion issue has brought to Dem grassroots,” one party strategist wrote on social media, predicting that it would push “Dem performance to upper end of what’s possible.”

This belief shaped the party’s 2024 strategy. Abortion was “by far the most prevalent topic in 2024 Democratic messaging,” Politico reported, “beating out health care, the economy and immigration.” The Harris campaign’s final round of advertisements mentioned abortion more than any other subject, according to the Wesleyan Media Project.

The strategy failed. Instead, many voters who support abortion access voted for Donald Trump and other Republicans, including in states with abortion initiatives on the ballot:

A chart compares vote shares for Kamala Harris and vote shares for abortion access ballot initiatives in Maryland, Colorado, New York, Nevada, Arizona, Montana, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota. In every state, more voters supported abortion access than supported Kamala Harris.

Details of each ballot initiative varied. Election results are as of 12 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 12. | By The New York Times

Alluring and dangerous

There seem to be a few reasons that the Republican Party’s unpopular abortion position didn’t hurt it more.

First, the Biden administration’s record was out of step with public opinion on other big issues, such as immigration. Second, Trump seemed to moderate his abortion stance, backing away from a national ban and saying he would allow states to decide their own policies. Third, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, her running mate, refused to answer questions about whether they supported any abortion restrictions — and most Americans do.

Finally, the demise of Roe has not led to a sharp decline in abortion access, thanks to efforts by advocates to provide pills through the mail. (Even in most states with bans, abortions increased between 2020 and 2023, Claire Cain Miller and Margot Sanger-Katz of The Times reported.)

My colleague Amy Schoenfeld Walker recently interviewed women who voted for both Trump and abortion-rights ballot initiatives and heard several of these themes. “I personally think Trump is someone who picks and chooses his battles,” said June Crozier, a Florida resident. “And he is saying everyone will have to deal with this from state to state.” Similarly, Aly Bennett, a St. Louis resident, said that states’ ability to set their own abortion policies led her to think, “OK, you can vote for the Republican candidate while still supporting your views on reproductive health.”

All of which helps explain why the 2024 election was not a referendum on abortion. But as the Democrats try to figure out their party’s future, there is also a broader lesson.

The idea that your own policy preferences make for smart political tactics is very attractive. (The writer Matthew Yglesias calls it “the pundit’s fallacy.”) If that’s the case, you don’t have to make compromises. You run on principle, you highlight your priorities — and you win.

Yet the idea can be self-defeating. If you read public opinion wishfully rather than realistically, you can hurt your own ability to win elections. You can make it easier for your political opponents to enact the policies you abhor.

THE LATEST NEWS

Trump’s Appointments

Donald Trump, seen from behind, with Elon Musk, who is dressed in black with a black MAGA baseball cap.

Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Doug Mills/The New York Times

Trump picked Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to run a new office he called the Department of Government Efficiency. He wants them to cut, restructure and dismantle parts of the federal government.
Trump chose Pete Hegseth to be defense secretary. Hegseth is a veteran and Fox News host with no government experience who has often defended Trump on TV.
Kristi Noem, South Dakota’s Republican governor, is the nominee to run the Department of Homeland Security. She sent National Guard troops to police the U.S.-Mexico border last year.
Mike Huckabee is the nominee to be the U.S. ambassador to Israel. Huckabee, a former Republican governor of Arkansas who twice ran for president, has been a vocal supporter of Israel.
John Ratcliffe is expected to lead the C.I.A. He is a former Texas congressman who was director of national intelligence during Trump’s first term. Ratcliffe pursued investigations into Hunter Biden.
Trump has selected two Republican House members to join his administration, narrowing what is likely to be a slim majority there.

MORNING READS

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In Wisconsin. Green Lake County Sheriff's Office

Mystery: A man went missing for months. Investigators say he faked his death and left his family to meet a woman in Uzbekistan.

“Proud hippies”: Two Missouri poll workers, married for 54 years, died in a flash flood on Election Day. Friends remembered the music festivals they hosted on their farm.

Skiplagging: A website will help you find cheaper flights by booking a connection you never take.

Ask Vanessa: What is the best thing to wear on a first date?

The exercise gap: Women have less time to work out than men. Their health pays the price.

Ask Well: Most dermatologists agree that a steaming-hot shower can strip oils and moisture from your hair and skin.

Theater: Everyone is giving a standing ovation. Do you have to stand?

Lives Lived: Frank Auerbach was one of Britain’s pre-eminent postwar painters, known for his unyielding work schedule, revisiting the same models and street scenes again and again. He died at 93.

SPORTS

N.B.A.: The Warriors spoiled Klay Thompson’s return to the Bay Area in a 120-117 win over the Mavericks.

College football: The playoff committee revealed its latest rankings, which put B.Y.U. into the top four seeds. See the bracket here.

M.L.B.: The Tampa Bay Rays will need a new stadium next season. Hurricane repairs at Tropicana Field won’t be finished until 2026.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Amir Hamja for The New York Times

Is artificial intelligence a threat to artists? Alexander Reben believes it can be a collaborator, not competition.

Reben, an M.I.T.-trained technologist, was the first artist in residence at OpenAI, the creators of ChatGPT. His works include a marble sculpture of an image generated by a robot, carved by a robot, and a camera that can print silly labels for whatever it’s looking at. He showed The Times some of his A.I.-assisted creations.