The Morning: Turnout wasn’t the problem

December 3, 2024

Good morning. Today, my colleague Nate Cohn explains that low turnout didn’t cost Kamala Harris the election. We’re also covering Hunter Biden’s pardon, climate change and black pants. —David Leonhardt

A man walking past “Trump Vance” and “Harris Walz” signs in early-morning light.

Voting in Pennsylvania on Election Day. Eric Lee/The New York Times

Persuasion over turnout

By Nate Cohn

I’m The Times’s chief political analyst.

If you’ve been reading post-election coverage, you’ve probably seen one of the big takeaways from the returns so far: In counties across the country, Kamala Harris won many fewer votes than President Biden did four years ago.

With nearly all votes counted, she has about 74 million; Biden received 81 million four years ago. Donald Trump, in contrast, has 77 million votes, up from 74 million four years ago.

The drop-off in the Democratic vote was largest in the big blue cities. In places like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, Trump gained vote share but didn’t necessarily earn many more votes than he did four years ago. Instead, Democratic tallies plunged.

As such, it’s tempting to conclude that Democrats simply didn’t turn out this year — and that Harris might have won if they had voted in the numbers they did four years ago.

This interpretation would be a mistake.

In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain.

Disenchanted Democrats

For one, the story doesn’t apply to the battlegrounds, where turnout was much higher. In all seven battleground states, Trump won more votes than Biden did in 2020.

More important, it is wrong to assume that the voters who stayed home would have backed Harris. Even if they had been dragged to the polls, it might not have meaningfully helped her.

How is that possible? The low turnout among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups — especially nonwhite voters — was a reflection of lower support for Harris: Millions of Democrats soured on their party and stayed home, reluctantly backed Harris or even made the leap to Trump.

Packing up after a Democratic election-watch party. Isadora Kosofsky for The New York Times

During the campaign, The New York Times and Siena College polled many of these voters. After the election, we analyzed election records to see who did and didn’t vote. The results suggest that higher turnout wouldn’t have been an enormous help to Harris.

That may be surprising. It’s not usually how people think about turnout. Typically, turnout and party-switching are imagined as independent. After all, millions of voters are all but sure to vote for one party, and the only question is whether they’ll vote. In lower-turnout midterms and special elections, turnout can be the whole ballgame.

But in a presidential election, turnout and persuasion often go hand in hand. The voters who may or may not show up are different from the rest of the electorate. They’re less ideological. They’re less likely to be partisans, even if they’re registered with a party. They’re less likely to have deep views on the issues. They don’t get their news from traditional media.

Throughout the race, polls found that Trump’s strength was concentrated among these voters. Many were registered Democrats or Biden voters four years ago. But they weren’t acting like Democrats in 2024. They were more concerned by pocketbook issues than democracy or abortion rights. If they decided to vote, many said they would back Trump.

The Las Vegas example

It will be many months until the story is clear nationwide, but the data we have so far suggests that the decline in Democratic turnout doesn’t explain Harris’s loss.

Clark County, Nev., which contains Las Vegas, is an example. There, 64.8 percent of registered Democrats turned out, down from 67.7 percent in 2020; turnout among registered Republicans stayed roughly the same.

An empty street, with a “Vote Here for Kamala Harris” sign resting against a bike rack.

Election Day in Las Vegas. Marshall Scheuttle for The New York Times

But this lower Democratic turnout would explain only about one-third of the decline in Democratic support in Clark County, even if one assumed that all Democrats were Harris voters. The remaining two-thirds of the shift toward Trump was because voters flipped his way.

Even that back-of-the-envelope calculation probably overestimates the role of turnout. Our polling data suggests that many of these nonvoting Democrats were no lock for Harris. In Times/Siena data for Clark County, Harris led registered Democrats who voted in 2024, 88 percent to 8 percent. But she had a much narrower lead, 71 percent to 23 percent, among the registered Democrats who stayed home.

There’s no equivalent pattern of a drop in support for Trump among Republicans who stayed home. Indeed, many high-turnout Republicans are highly engaged, college-educated “Never Trump” voters who have helped Democrats in special and midterm elections.

In Las Vegas and elsewhere, our data suggests that most voters who turned out in 2020 but stayed home in 2024 voted for Biden in 2020 — but about half of them, and maybe even a slight majority, appear to have backed Trump this year. Regardless, there’s no reason to believe that they would have backed Harris by a wide margin, let alone the kind of margin that would have made a difference in the election.

THE LATEST NEWS

Hunter Biden Pardon

Biden decided to pardon his son Hunter as Trump picked nominees who pledged to retaliate against his political enemies — and out of concern that Hunter might relapse after years of sobriety.
Several Democrats in Congress, especially moderates, criticized Biden’s decision to pardon his son. Some progressive members said the pardon was justified.
The breadth of Hunter’s pardon alarmed legal experts, who compared it to Gerald Ford’s pardon of Richard Nixon and the pardons Trump gave his allies at the end of his first term.
Did politics motivate the prosecutions against Hunter, as Biden claims? Few first-time, nonviolent offenders get serious prison time for the gun charge he faced.

Trump Appointments

A Venn diagram of head shots shows what several potential members of the incoming Trump administration have in common: Fox News hosts or contributors, held events at Mar-a-Lago, or ties to Project 2025 or the America First Policy Institute.

By The New York Times

Project 2025, Mar-a-Lago and Fox News: Here are the connections among Trump’s cabinet picks.
Kash Patel, Trump’s choice to lead the F.B.I., has called for purging bureau officials and replacing them with loyalists, withholding the bureau’s funding and prosecuting leakers and journalists.
Pete Hegseth, Trump’s pick to lead the Pentagon, lost his job running two veterans’ nonprofit groups after accusations of financial mismanagement, pursuing female employees and being drunk at work, The New Yorker reported. (Hegseth’s lawyer declined to respond to questions and accused the magazine of laundering “outlandish claims.”)
Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Democrat, urged John Thune, the Republican leader, to abide by traditional rules for Trump’s picks. Trump has asked Republicans to circumvent the vetting process.
Trump picked Warren Stephens, an investment banker and top Republican donor who once opposed him, to be his U.K. ambassador.

Trump Administration

Trump said he would block a Japanese company from buying U.S. Steel after his inauguration. Biden and Harris had also indicated that they opposed the $15 billion deal.
Trump’s tariffs could raise the price of beer, berries, avocados and many other foods, The Washington Post reports.

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SPORTS

N.F.L.: The Denver Broncos beat the Cleveland Browns, 41-32, in a frenzied game.

M.L.B.: Baseball officials are discussing a new rule, called the Golden At-Bat, in which a team could substitute any player into the game for a single plate appearance.

Golf: Mollie Marcoux Samaan will resign as L.P.G.A. commissioner. Her successor will inherit a rising sport with many issues.

ARTS AND IDEAS

A triptych of black pants: leggings with decorative seam holes, heavily slashed jeans, and track pants.

Simbarashe Cha/The New York Times

Black pants are essential. It is possible to spend years chasing the perfect pair, “permanently twinkling in the distance,” Vanessa Friedman, The Times’s chief fashion critic, writes.

But how many pairs of black pants is too many? Friedman says that each pair should have its own use — slacks for work, jeans for play. But if you wear them, and they don’t get lost in the back of your closet, you can never have too many.