The Morning: A disagreement on tariffs - frederick.lapides@gmail.com

February 18, 2025

Good morning. We’re covering Trump’s tariffs — as well as resignations, a plane crash and a book on ugliness.

President Trump with his right hand raised to his forehead in salute.

President Trump Al Drago for The New York Times

Dueling predictions

With many of President Trump’s policies, he and his critics agree about the likely effects even if they sharply disagree about the wisdom of those effects.

Consider this list of predictions: Elon Musk’s efforts to cut government spending will weaken the federal government. Trump’s overhaul of the Justice Department will make it more loyal to him and his allies. His immigration policies will reduce the number of people coming to the United States. His Europe policies will cause the continent to be less reliant on the U.S. His assault on D.E.I. will shrink diversity programs in both the government and the private sector.

Tariffs, however, are an exception. Trump and his critics don’t disagree only about whether they are a good idea; the two sides also have diametrically opposed predictions about what will happen if Trump implements even some of the tariffs he has promised.

His critics — including some Republicans — believe that imposing fees on imports will damage the U.S. economy. They say the possibility has already created uncertainty that is anathema to business investment. When more tariffs are in effect, they will raise prices for consumers and hurt more American manufacturers than they help. (Think of an automaker that will have to pay more for the raw materials and parts it buys from overseas.) Some people who are alarmed by Trump even tell me that they’re quietly rooting for him to go big on tariffs because they think it will damage his presidency.

Trump’s advisers have a very different prediction. They believe the concerns about uncertainty are overblown. They think the mere threat of tariffs will cause other countries to reduce their own barriers to U.S. companies. (Already, European Union officials have signaled they will cut tariffs on American cars to appease Trump.) And Trump’s team says that tariffs will have more benefits than downsides.

Navarro’s case

Peter Navarro gesturing with both hands while speaking to reporters.

Peter Navarro Eric Lee/The New York Times

If you’re hoping to understand the Trump argument, I recommend today’s episode of “The Daily,” in which my colleague Ana Swanson interviews Peter Navarro, a senior White House adviser whose writings have influenced Trump’s views. Navarro first warned about the economic threat from China years ago, when many mainstream Democrats and Republicans still argued that China’s rise would benefit the U.S. Today, those mainstream figures agree China as a worrisome rival — even if they think Navarro is wrong about the correct policy solution.

In Navarro’s conversation on “The Daily,” he says that the strong economic performance and the low inflation during Trump’s first term — when he imposed tariffs on China — show that tariffs don’t have the downsides many economists forecast. “It’s not going to be painful for America,” Navarro said. “President Donald John Trump has proven that tariffs work for the American people, and they’re going to be even more — much more — important this second term.”

Specifically, Navarro argues that the U.S. is such an important market that foreign companies will cut their prices and accept lower profits rather than pass along the cost of tariffs to consumers. He also predicts that suppliers, such as those that sell parts to automakers, will relocate to the U.S.

It’s still possible that Trump will not follow through on many of his tariff threats. He delayed planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico after the stock market reacted poorly. And The Wall Street Journal reported last night that Republican senators skeptical of tariffs were maneuvering to reduce Navarro’s influence in the White House. They hope Trump’s other economic advisers, some of whom are awaiting confirmation, will help their cause.

But at least some major tariffs seem likely to go into effect, as Ana has reported. Last week, Trump announced that 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum would begin March 12. He also directed his aides to design reciprocal tariffs, which would place the same fees on a country’s exports to the U.S. that it places on imports from the U.S.

It sets up a fascinating real-world experiment in which two sides of a debate have very different expectations about what will happen. You can listen to “The Daily” here.

THE LATEST NEWS

Trump Administration

Elon Musk in a black hat in the Oval Office

Elon Musk Eric Lee/The New York Times

The top official at the Social Security Administration stepped down after members of Elon Musk’s DOGE sought access to sensitive personal data about millions of Americans.
Republicans set a limit for their planned tax cuts, $4.5 trillion over 10 years, that would require the cuts to be far smaller than those Trump campaigned on.
Trump nominated Ed Martin, an election denier who was outside the Capitol on Jan. 6, to be U.S. attorney for Washington.
The Education Department warned schools that they risk losing federal funding if they account for race in hiring, scholarships and “all other aspects of student, academic and campus life.”
Thousands protested across the U.S. on Presidents’ Day. They criticized Trump’s actions against federal workers and prosecutors.

Russia-Ukraine War

Delegations from the U.S. and Russia traveled to Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Ukraine and Europe are not participating in the talks.

Russia released a 28-year-old American it had detained on marijuana charges. Russian officials called his release a good-will gesture.
France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, summoned European leaders to Paris to devise their own strategy for Ukraine.

Eric Adams

Eric Adams Jefferson Siegel for The New York Times

Four New York City officials plan to resign over Mayor Eric Adams’s cooperation with Trump. A prosecutor accused Adams of embracing Trump’s immigration policies in exchange for an end to the mayor’s legal troubles.
Gov. Kathy Hochul is considering removing Adams from office. She was to hold a meeting today to discuss the possibility.

International

The C.I.A. is conducting secret drone flights over Mexico to locate fentanyl labs. The Biden administration began the program and the Trump administration is expanding it.
Costa Rica will accept a U.S. flight carrying 200 migrants. It is the second Central American nation to receive deportees from distant countries who entered the U.S. illegally.
Israel will keep its forces in five locations in southern Lebanon beyond the deadline for a full withdrawal. Officials said Hezbollah still posed a threat to Israelis living near the border.
There is a global shortage of medical oxygen. Hundreds of millions of patients require it every year, but less than a third of them actually get it, a study found.
Trump’s cuts to U.S.A.I.D. have halted a program that supports victims of Agent Orange, the toxic chemical that the U.S. used during the Vietnam War. Read one woman’s story.
Mexico is threatening to sue Google over the “Gulf of America” name change. It says Google relabeled the entire gulf, including Mexican and Cuban maritime areas, but that Trump’s order applies only to the U.S. continental shelf, The Washington Post reports.
Pope Francis, 88, is hospitalized with a respiratory infection.

MORNING READS

A green parrot with a yellow head seen in a triple exposure

In Manhattan. Oliver Farshi for The New York Times

Squawk: How three parrots tore apart a friendship and a Manhattan co-op.

Runaway dog: He’s become a hero in New Orleans. His saga has inspired tattoos, murals and Mardi Gras floats.

“MAGA Youth”: Young people say it’s becoming cooler to be conservative.

Relationships: “I opened my marriage. Maybe I should have tried an affair instead,” a woman writes for The Cut.

Skip the beach: Go to a city that is good for adults and kids for spring break.

Most clicked yesterday: “Why don’t people dress up to go out anymore?”

Lives Lived: Ron Travisano was an adman who helped create the Meow Mix jingle, the Joe Isuzu pitchman and many other memorable commercials. He has died at 86.

SPORTS

Hockey: The United States lost to Sweden, 2-1. The U.S. will still face Canada in the championship game Thursday.

Tennis: Stefano Vukov, the coach of women’s tennis star Elena Rybakina, is accused of mentally abusing Rybakina, according to a W.T.A. report — even as the player insists he is blameless.

College football: The commissioners of the Big Ten and SEC are meeting this week to determine the future of the College Football Playoff.

ARTS AND IDEAS

A black-and-white photograph of Moshtari Hilal, who is standing on a bridge over a waterway and holding an umbrella over her head.

Moshtari Hilal, author of “Ugliness.” Mustafah Abdulaziz for The New York Times

How do we decide that someone is “ugly”? And what if you believe that the ugly someone is you? A new book by Moshtari Hilal, an Afghan German writer and artist, explores these questions by combining personal memoir with history, sociology and philosophy. Read more about it here.

The Morning: a look at the news

Dueling predictions

Navarro’s case

THE LATEST NEWS

MORNING READS

SPORTS

ARTS AND IDEAS

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