Amid growing tensions in the Middle East, an unexpected picture is emerging: Donald Trump, who pursued the most hardline policies against Iran during his first term, is now—through indirect negotiations—laying the groundwork for what some are calling a “grand bargain” with Tehran.
Yet just as the scent of diplomacy begins to fill the air, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has escalated threats and military posturing, relentlessly warning of an “imminent attack” on Iran. This timing is no coincidence. Motivated by personal interests and political ambition, Netanyahu is sidelining even his longtime ally Trump in an attempt to sabotage this potential diplomatic breakthrough—challenging not just the deal itself, but Trump’s credibility as a global leader.
For Trump, a new agreement with Iran could serve not only as a symbolic foreign policy victory but also as a strategic tool to consolidate his domestic standing. If successful, such a deal would deliver tangible achievements for his administration, including showcasing his ability to resolve one of the world’s most complex diplomatic challenges—one he himself deepened by withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear accord in 2018. Sensing an opportunity, Trump has positioned himself as a master negotiator, setting deadlines and insisting that any outcome must be, in his words, “preferably peaceful,” while also keeping military options—such as tacit support for Israeli action—on the table.
This potential agreement could neutralize criticism from hardline conservatives and some within his own party who have questioned his diplomatic overtures toward Iran. It could also deflect attacks from Democrats who have portrayed his foreign policy as erratic and agenda-less. By reiterating that “Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon,” Trump attempts to project strength while embracing diplomacy. His dual-track approach—combining pressure with negotiation—allows him to appeal both to domestic supporters who favor “maximum pressure” and to an international audience eager for de-escalation.
But just as Trump seems ready to play this diplomatic trump card, Benjamin Netanyahu steps in to complicate the equation. Despite being one of Trump’s closest allies during his first term—benefiting from the U.S. Embassy’s move to Jerusalem and the withdrawal from the Iran deal—Netanyahu now views renewed U.S.-Iran talks with suspicion. He has repeatedly stated that any new agreement must lead to the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program.
Netanyahu: A Player Who Refuses to Leave the Stage
For years, Netanyahu has turned “fear-mongering over Iran” into a tool for consolidating domestic power and securing foreign support. War—or even the threat of it—has long been central to his political survival strategy. But now he faces a conundrum: if Trump, his former ally, reaches a deal with Iran, what happens to that survival narrative? What happens to the carefully crafted discourse of “Iranian menace” on which he has so heavily invested?
This is why Netanyahu prefers opposition over support. His aggressive rhetoric, one-sided intelligence disclosures, and threats of imminent war are all part of an effort to delegitimize Trump’s diplomatic initiative. In essence, he has become a spoiler—not just of the deal, but of Trump’s moment.
Netanyahu’s recent statements about Iran being “closer than ever” to building a bomb, along with his cabinet’s direct threats against Tehran, effectively paint Trump as a “weak” president. Not only is Netanyahu questioning Trump’s leadership, but he is also, in the subtlest ways, encouraging Trump’s domestic opponents—Democrats and neoconservatives alike—to turn against him. Netanyahu is evolving into an ally who no longer behaves like one.
For Trump, overcoming domestic resistance in the U.S. is already a formidable task. He faces pressure from traditional pro-Israel lobbies, hawkish senators, and conservative media outlets. What makes the situation even more complicated is Netanyahu himself—an ally who could have backed the deal, but is now actively working to destroy it. This doesn’t just weaken Trump within the Republican Party; it hands powerful talking points to Democrats eager to portray him as unstable and unfit to restore America’s global leadership.
At first glance, it may appear that the biggest threats to a Trump-Iran deal are hawkish Republicans or Iranian hardliners. But the reality is more nuanced. Netanyahu—driven by personal and political calculations—is striving to derail the diplomatic track and return the region to confrontation. He knows that a successful agreement would not only boost Trump’s stature, but also diminish Israel’s role in shaping America’s Middle East strategy. And for a prime minister who has built his power on controlling the narrative around Iran, that’s unacceptable.
In the end, if any agreement is to be reached, it will have to overcome resistance not just from Tehran or Washington, but also navigate a minefield laid by Netanyahu himself.
And if Trump manages to cross that field and emerge victorious, he may yet display a kind of leadership that even his critics will struggle to dismiss.