Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
President Trump's team has launched an early and aggressive behind-the-scenes effort to maintain the GOP's tenuous grip on the House in 2026 — and avoid his third impeachment, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes.
- Why it matters: Trump allies believe — with good reason — that a Democrat-controlled House would launch investigations of the president and move to impeach him. That's exactly what happened after Democrats seized the chamber during Trump's first term.
The twice-impeached Trump "knows the stakes firsthand. He saw what can happen. It's clear he doesn't want that again," said Matt Gorman, a top official for House Republicans' campaign arm in the 2018 midterms.
- "Investigations, impeachment — he knows it's all on the table with a Speaker [Hakeem] Jeffries."
- Some Democrats have signaled they want to investigate Trump's overhaul of the U.S. government, whether he manipulated markets and fostered insider trading with his tariff announcements, and whether he's helped Elon Musk secure deals for Starlink.
- Then there's that $400 million jet from Qatar. Democrats and other critics say Trump violated the Constitution by accepting the gift.
Zoom in: Here are five steps Trump's taking to try to keep Republican control of the House, where the GOP has an eight-seat majority — including vacancies created this year by the deaths of three Democrats.
1. Trying to prevent retirements. The White House is targeting several Republicans in politically divided swing districts and urging them not to ditch their seats or run for higher office.
- Incumbent lawmakers with established fundraising and campaigning networks are almost always better positioned to win than any challengers.
- It has sent a clear message to New York Rep. Mike Lawler that Trump wants him to stay in the House rather than run for governor.
2. Spending big. Trump has built a $500 million-plus political apparatus, and he's already unloading some of it with 2026 in mind.
- Securing American Greatness, a pro-Trump group that works with the White House, has launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign touting his economic agenda in the districts of eight vulnerable House Republicans.
- Trump also has a leadership PAC, Never Surrender, planning to give directly to Republican candidates.
3. Taking primary challengers off the table. Besides Lawler, Trump has endorsed a slate of swing-district GOP incumbents in a series of moves aimed at shutting down would-be primary challengers before they get off the ground, people close to the president tell Axios.
- Top Republicans are worried that competitive primaries could drain the party's resources and weaken lawmakers.
4. Raising gobs more money. Trump is the GOP's most powerful fundraiser, and he's begun helping the party fill its coffers.
- He headlined an April dinner benefiting the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) that raked in more than $35 million.
5. Ramping up recruiting. Trump's political operation and the NRCC are seeking out candidates in swing-district contests with no incumbents.
- Their goal is to get the party to coalesce around a Trump-and-GOP-backed candidate to avoid a bloody primary, a Trump ally said.
- Trump will play the role of "closer" in getting prospects off the fence and into contests.
2. 
Americans to business: Take AI slow
Data: Axios/Harris Poll 100. Chart: Axios Visuals
While the tech industry floors the pedal on AI, the U.S. public would be happy to hit the brakes, Axios' Scott Rosenberg writes.
- Why it matters: CEOs, investors and tech companies have pushed the narrative of a do-or-die AI race — but most people would rather get AI right than get it first.
Stunning stat: More than three-quarters of Americans (77%) want companies to create AI slowly and get it right the first time, even if that delays breakthroughs, the 2025 Axios Harris 100 poll found.
- Only 23% of Americans want companies to develop AI quickly to speed breakthroughs, even at the price of mistakes along the way.
Between the lines: This finding is consistent across generational lines, but the margins vary.
- 91% of boomers and 77% of Gen X favor slower AI.
- That number drops to 63% for millennials — but rises again to 74% for Gen Z, the youngest and most "digital native."
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3. 
Robot industry's big split
A model of Tesla's Optimus robot on display in Japan. Photo: Stanislav Kogiku/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Advanced robots don't necessarily need to look like C3PO from "Star Wars" or George Jetson's maid Rosie — despite all the hype over humanoids from Wall Street and Big Tech, Axios Future of Mobility author Joann Muller writes.
- In fact, some of the biggest skeptics about human-shaped robots come from within the robotics industry itself.
Why it matters: Robots are meant to take over dirty, dangerous and dull tasks — not to replace humans, who are still the most sophisticated machines of all.
- Morgan Stanley believes there's a $4.7 trillion market for humanoids like Tesla's Optimus over the next 25 years — most of them in industrial settings.
The big picture: The most productive — and profitable — bots are the ones that can do single tasks cheaply and efficiently.
- "If you look at where robots are really bringing value in a manufacturing environment, it is combining industrial or collaborative robots with mobility," ABB managing director Ali Raja tells Axios.
- "I don't see that there are any real practical applications where humanoids are bringing in a lot of value."
Between the lines: "The reason we have two legs is because ... we have to figure out how to traverse an infinite number of things," like climbing a mountain or riding a bike, explains Michael Cicco, CEO of Fanuc America Corporation.
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4.
King Charles' Canadian mission
King Charles III drops a ceremonial first puck during an event in Ottawa yesterday. Photo: Chris Jackson/Getty Images
King Charles III arrived in Ottawa yesterday on a visit that Canada's leader says will underscore his nation's sovereignty in a message aimed at President Trump's talk of annexing America's northern neighbor.
- Why it matters: Trump's repeated suggestion that Canada become the 51st state prompted Prime Minister Mark Carney to invite Charles, who is also Canada's head of state, to deliver a ceremonial speech from the throne.
It is rare for the monarch to deliver the address in Canada. Charles' mother, Queen Elizabeth II, did it twice in her 70-year reign, the last time in 1977.
5. 
Trump: "I have everything ... God did that"
President Trump bows his head in prayer with others before delivering a Memorial Day address at Arlington National Cemetery yesterday. Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
During Memorial Day remarks at Arlington National Cemetery, President Trump postulated a divine timeline:
- "These extraordinary American heroes ... offer only the faintest glimpse at the infinite grace we have received from all who laid down their lives for America over the past 250 years. We're gonna have a big, big celebration [on July 4, 2026, to mark America's 250th birthday]."
- "In some ways, I'm glad I missed that second term where it was, because [laughter] I wouldn't be your president. ... In addition, we have the World Cup [next year], and we have the Olympics [in L.A. in 2028]."
- "Can you imagine? I missed that four years — and now look what I have! I have everything. Amazing the way things work out. God did that — I believe that, too. [Applause.] God did it."
6. 
Historically high insurance losses
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
U.S. insured losses from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes this year are running well above historic averages, and the gap's only getting worse, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes from a report by Aon.
- Why it matters: The Trump administration is gutting FEMA and telling states to solve their own crises, just as the climate-influenced impact of disasters is getting worse.
By the numbers: From the start of the year through the end of April, severe thunderstorms caused $11 billion in insured losses, Aon said in a report last week.
- But then May's devastating tornadoes hit. Aon says that loss figure "could double by the end of the month."
7. 
College endowment tax workaround
The current version of President Trump's tax bill could profoundly transform the world of university endowments, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.
- The bill would tax college investment income based on the size of a school's endowment per student (charted above), with the stated aim of holding "woke, elite universities" accountable.
Why it matters: One of the driving forces behind the bill is the argument that if large universities behave like hedge funds, then they should start being taxed more like hedge funds and less like nonprofits.
Zoom in: Universities could adjust by shifting toward investments that don't produce taxable income, Anne Duggan of TIFF Investment Management writes.
- Alternative assets like private equity — as well as stocks like Berkshire Hathaway and many ETFs — don't pay dividends and could escape the new taxes.
8. 
Pic to go: Macron's playfight
Photo: Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters
French President Emmanuel Macron played down a video of his wife, Brigitte, shoving him before they stepped off their plane in Vietnam over the weekend.
- "We are squabbling and, rather, joking with my wife," he said, adding that the incident was being overblown into "a sort of geo-planetary catastrophe."
Go deeper ... Watch the video.
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