How Trump’s Tariffs Impact Global Travel, In Charts

Trump’s
$12 Billion Tourism Wipeout

Four months into the president’s second term, his policies are upending tourism worldwide. Nine charts show the toll on global travel.

June 6, 2025 at 12:01 AM EDTUpdated on June 7, 2025 at 11:55 AM EDT

US President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies have cut into travel worldwide. The simmering trade war, the crackdown at the border and the rollback of LGBTQ rights—capped by a ban on visitors from a dozen countries announced on June 4—have led to tens of thousands of canceled trips. With travelers choosing alternate destinations, the American economy will lose out on $12.5 billion this year, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council—which will widen the trade deficit, because economists count spending by visitors to the country as an export. Here’s a look at the toll the president’s policies have taken on travel, in nine charts.

Foreign arrivals to the US by air have fallen 2.5% so far this year through April from a year ago, according to the US International Trade Administration. The biggest drop—10%—came in March, after Trump announced tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. Trump’s policies have prompted a travel boycott from Canadians, the largest group of visitors, and anti-American sentiment is on the rise in Europe. Although the US hasn’t yet released data on land entries from Canada, that country’s statistics bureau said trips across the southern border fell 15% in April, the third straight month of decline. Air France, British Airways and Lufthansa are all cutting flights to destinations such as Atlanta, Las Vegas, Miami and New York, website AeroRoutes reports.

Before Trump took office, analysts expected 2025 to be a bumper year for US tourism, with almost 79 million foreign visitors—approaching pre-pandemic levels. But given the political turmoil, research company Tourism Economics has scaled back its forecast to 66 million as global travelers increasingly choose alternate destinations. The group expects the largest pullback from Canadians, with visits plunging about 20% this year, and the numbers from western Europe will drop 5.8%. Airbnb, Booking.com and Expedia have all cautioned that their financial results will be weaker than expected because of softening demand in the US.

Foreign tourism in the US has bounced back from the pandemic more slowly than in many other places, and this year for the first time since 2020, the gains have reversed. Spending by overseas visitors in 2025 will fall 7%, to less than $169 billion, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council. Of the 184 economies the WTTC tracks, the US is the only one expected to see tourism revenue decline this year, and the group says it won’t return to its pre-Covid-19 level before 2030. In contrast to the US, with its tighter border policies, China now offers visa-free entry to citizens of more than 54 countries, versus only 3 before the pandemic. As a result, mainland tourism is rebounding strongly, with international visitors expected to fork over $144 billion this year—13% above their 2019 high.

The changes vary dramatically, and some places—Argentina, Brazil, Israel, Mongolia and Russia among them—have logged gains in arrivals. But 11 of the top 20 markets for US visits have fallen this year through April, according to US and Canadian government data. If the trend continues, a forecast from the US National Travel and Tourism Office released in March—predicting a 6.5% increase in overseas visitors this year, including more Canadians, Mexicans and Europeans—may prove ambitious.

At least a dozen countries have advised their citizens to exercise caution on visits to the US. Canadians, for instance, have been told to prepare for delays, denial of entry and seizure of their devices. European countries including the UK, Germany and France have cautioned that travelers to the US risk detention by immigration officials. In March a backpacker from Wales was detained at the US border coming from Canada for almost three weeks, and a German tattoo artist was held for a month and a half when she tried to enter the US from Mexico. Ireland, Denmark and the Netherlands have warned transgender and nonbinary citizens of potential complications because of a Trump executive order recognizing only two sexes.

Global air bookings to the US from May 1 to July 31 are 11% lower than a year ago, according to Tourism Economics. The group says planned visits by Canadians are off by a third, which could mean $6 billion in lost spending and cost more than 40,000 American jobs, according to figures from the US Travel Association, an industry group. As tourists from around the world forgo US visits this summer, Japan in particular is benefiting. The country posted a record 3.9 million overseas visitors—the most in any single month ever, lured by growing numbers of luxury hotels, gourmet restaurants and a cheap yen. And as US visits from Canada, France and South Korea fell in April, Japan posted spikes in travelers from those countries. Meanwhile, other Asian countries such as Vietnam are also gaining in visitation. The country is the fastest growing tourism destination in Southeast Asia and has regained nearly all of its pre-pandemic tourism business.

Of the 20 American cities that raked in the most spending by foreign visitors last year, 18 will see declines, Tourism Economics predicts. Worst hit will be Detroit, Seattle and Tampa, but the pain will be widespread. Philadelphia and Phoenix will both fall 8%, and Riverside, California—the gateway to Palm Springs and Joshua Tree National Park—will drop 7%. The two bright spots are Honolulu and New York. But local officials in the Big Apple (the top US destination for overseas tourism) are significantly less optimistic: In May the city said the number of international visitors will drop 17% this year from 2024 levels because of Trump’s tariffs and detentions of immigrants.

Given the combative rhetoric on trade emanating from the White House, business confidence is plummeting. The Global Business Travel Association, an industry group, initially predicted corporate travel spending would climb to a record $1.63 trillion this year. But an April survey of global travel managers showed almost a third expect a decrease in company spending as a result of recent US government actions, which could mean a 5% drop, to about $1.55 trillion. The number of western Europeans entering the US on business visas fell 18% in April, according to US government data.

Some 18% of Americans plan to take a vacation overseas within the next six months, 6 points below the level in December, according to the Conference Board, an economic analysis group. In an April survey by Future Partners, a research company that polls American travelers monthly, almost 70% of respondents said they’ve made at least one adjustment to their vacation plans based on economic concerns, with 14% nixing pricier overseas journeys for domestic trips instead.