College Grads Less Likely To Get Married (Or Divorced)

For Many, Education Pushes That Walk Down The Aisle Further Away

AMES, Iowa — Getting a college degree might make someone a better catch on paper, but new research reveals a counterintuitive finding: higher education actually reduces the chances of getting married, especially for young adults. Each additional year of schooling decreases the probability of being married by roughly four percentage points for people in their twenties and early thirties, according to a comprehensive study of millions of White, non-Hispanic Americans drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.

Even more notable, education increases the likelihood that someone will never marry at all, even when they reach their forties and fifties. The study’s author previous studies missed important factors that influence both educational choices and marriage decisions.

How Education Affects Marriage at Different Life Stages

Researchers Kunwon Ahn from the Korea Labor Institute and John V. Winters from Iowa State University examined data spanning from 2006 to 2019, creating one of the largest investigations into how education affects marriage decisions. Their analysis revealed that education’s impact varies dramatically by age.

For people ages 25 to 34, each additional year of schooling reduces their chances of being married by about 4 percentage points. However, for those ages 45 to 54, education has no significant effect on whether they’re currently married.

At first glance, this pattern might suggest that education simply delays marriage without affecting long-term marriage rates. But the reality is more complex. Education simultaneously makes people less likely to ever marry while also making those who do marry less likely to separate, divorce, or be widowed overall. These competing effects largely offset the rise in never-married rates by middle age.

The data shows that education increases the probability of remaining permanently single by roughly two to three percentage points even for people in their late forties and early fifties. Meanwhile, education reduces the overall likelihood of being divorced, separated, or widowed; most individual categories show negative effects and many are statistically significant.

Why Previous Studies Got It Wrong

Previous studies on education and marriage faced a fundamental challenge: people who pursue higher education often differ from those who don’t in ways researchers can’t easily measure. Someone who earns a graduate degree might have different personality traits, family support systems, or other characteristics that affect both their educational choices and their likelihood of marrying.

To address this problem, Ahn and Winters used a technique called instrumental variables. Instead of directly comparing individuals with different education levels, they examined how average maternal education levels varied across different ancestry groups within the same states and birth years.

Mothers’ education levels rose over time in patterns that varied by cultural background and location. These historical differences in maternal education primarily affected their children’s outcomes through encouraging their children to pursue more education themselves.

Using data from the 1980 and 1990 U.S. Census, the researchers calculated average maternal education levels for groups defined by state of birth, year of birth, and ancestry (such as German, Irish, or Italian heritage). They then connected this information to individual outcomes in the American Community Survey.

When the researchers used traditional statistical methods, they found the same positive relationship between education and marriage that others had reported. But when they used their more rigorous approach, the relationship turned negative.

Education Creates More Selective Marriage Patterns

The research doesn’t mean that education makes people less desirable as partners. In fact, more educated individuals are significantly more likely to marry other college graduates when they do get married. For people who are married, each additional year of education increases the probability of having a college-educated spouse by substantial margins, ranging from about 13 to 24 percentage points depending on age and gender. Across all adults, not just those who are married, the increase is about 5 to 13 percentage points per year of education.

Education appears to create a more selective approach to marriage rather than simply reducing attractiveness as a partner. Highly educated individuals may have higher standards for potential spouses, better access to career opportunities that provide financial independence, or other alternatives to marriage.

“From expanding career opportunities to increasing independence, education reshapes what we look for in a partner, as well as when we’re ready to commit and whether we want to marry at all,” study co-author John Winters, professor of economics at Iowa State, says in a statement. “Some people may feel they’ve gained the freedom to wait for the right match, while others may use that same sense of freedom to follow a path that doesn’t include marriage. And some people may find that education makes them more attractive to a prospective partner.”

As people become more economically self-sufficient through education, they may feel less need for the financial security that marriage traditionally provided. Education might also change how people weigh the costs and benefits of marriage itself.

The effects of higher education on marriage appear roughly equal for men and women, contradicting theories that suggested education would affect marriage decisions differently by gender. Both sexes show similar patterns of delayed marriage and increased likelihood of remaining permanently single.

Beyond marriage, the research also found that education reduces both marriage and childbearing for people in their twenties and thirties, indicating that the two life decisions are connected.

“Many people value the institution of marriage for its sake, while others assign it importance based on religious, cultural and social values. Economically, marriage has important consequences for children, including how many people children have and the resources that they can invest in those children,” says Winters.

What This Means for American Families

Rather than simply making people more attractive partners or better prepared for family life, higher education appears to reshape life priorities and relationship expectations in ways that often lead away from traditional marriage patterns.

The economic implications are significant. As education levels continue rising across developed countries while marriage rates decline, these results suggest the two trends may be causally connected rather than merely coincidental.

The research doesn’t necessarily suggest that educated people are making worse choices or missing out on happiness. Marriage rates aren’t inherently good or bad but simply reflect changing preferences and circumstances. But for policymakers and individuals making decisions about education and family planning, understanding these relationships provides valuable insight into how life choices interconnect.

“We stay in more, go out less and are increasingly divided – all of which could make people less likely to marry,” Winters says. “The opportunities for future research related to marriage rates will continue to evolve with us.”