On a symbolic level, Palestinians’ long-held dream of an independent state has never appeared closer. At the U.N. General Assembly next month, Britain, France, Canada and Australia plan to join 147 other countries in recognizing one. If that happens, four of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council will have done so, leaving the United States isolated in opposition.
But on the level that matters — the ground truth — rarely has the goal of Palestinian statehood seemed more distant. After nearly two years of war against Hamas in Gaza — sparked after the terrorist group killed 1,200 Israelis and took 250 people hostage — the vast majority of Israelis, 71 percent, oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state, compared to roughly half a decade ago.
France, Canada, Malta, Britain and Australia have said they will recognize an independent state of Palestine at the U.N. General Assembly in September.
The Israeli military, under orders from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is preparing for a new military offensive to seize and occupy Gaza City, the last stronghold of Hamas. This could lead to more Palestinian displacement, more civilian casualties and more hardship for a population already suffering from widespread famine. Hamas fighters might retreat to their warren of tunnels and take their remaining hostages with them.
The idea of two states coexisting side-by-side has been further dimmed by the increasing encroachment of Israeli settlements onto Palestinian land in the West Bank, home to 3 million Palestinians. On Wednesday, the Israeli government announced plans for a long-delayed West Bank settlement project called E1 to build an additional 3,400 housing units east of Jerusalem. The planned project, opposed by the Obama and Biden administrations, will further dissect the West Bank, displace hundreds of Palestinian Bedouins and add to the West Bank settler population of 500,000.
The establishment of a Palestinian state has been the position of the United States government through successive Republican and Democratic administrations. Until recently, it was also the official Israeli position, starting with the Oslo accords signed in 1993 between Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat, leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization. Only when Netanyahu came to power with a hard-right coalition did Israel officially reject the two-state solution. President Donald Trump has shown little interest in the idea, instead pushing for the untenable idea of removing all Palestinians from Gaza.
A two-state solution remains the only viable option to end the decades of continuous bloodshed and give Palestinians what all people deserve: the right to self-determination in their own homeland. But recognizing a state now comes at the wrong time. It actually sets back efforts to find a lasting peace.
The establishment of a Palestinian state was always envisioned as the end goal of a process in which Israelis agree to swap conquered land for a guaranteed peace. But diplomatic recognition must be conditions-based — not an end to itself. At the core, the future Palestinian state must recognize Israel’s right to exist and renounce violence and terrorism. That means removing from any government role groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, whose calling cards are the elimination of the Jewish state. It means erasing from the education of young Palestinians in schools and mosques that insidious hatred of Israel and the Jewish people. And it means standing up a reformed Palestinian Authority with the credibility and resources to govern the new entity.
The rush to recognize a Palestinian state by some of Israel’s staunchest allies such as France, Britain, Canada and Australia is born of an understandable frustration: mainly their inability to sway Netanyahu’s government to cease its destructive war on Gaza and alleviate the human suffering. Recognizing a Palestinian state is a diplomatic way of kicking over the table to try to restart peace talks from scratch. But the predictable result has been further Israeli intransigence. Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said the plan to expand settlements into the West Bank would “bury the idea” of statehood. “The Palestinian state is being erased from the table, not with slogans but with actions,” he said.
Palestinians already have a symbolic de facto state. They have their own passports, and their athletes compete in international sporting events, including the Olympics, under the Palestinian flag. Making the state a reality, if it ever happens, will take much more than symbolic recognition. It will require the eradication of Hamas, ironclad security guarantees for Israel and internationally agreed upon borders. All that can only possibly come through painstaking negotiations that win buy in from Israelis and Palestinians.