www.washingtonpost.com /national-security/2026/03/07/iran-intelligence-report-unlikely-oust-regime/

Intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime

John Hudson, Warren P. Strobel 2-2 minutes 3/7/2026

Democracy Dies in Darkness

A classified U.S. report doubts that Iran’s opposition would take power following either a short or extended U.S. military campaign.

March 7, 2026 at 7:00 a.m. ESTToday at 7:00 a.m. EST

Pro-government demonstrators march against the U.S.-Israeli military campaign in Tehran on Friday. A classified U.S. report recently predicted that the Iranian regime would be able to hold onto power even if the United States attacked. (Vahid Salemi/AP)

A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”


What readers are saying

The comments largely criticize President Trump's approach to Iran, suggesting that he disregards intelligence assessments and acts impulsively. Many commenters express skepticism about the effectiveness of a large-scale assault on Iran to change its regime, aligning with the... Show more

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